Xi Jinping has, for the first time, refused to attend a BRICS summit. Many are already trying to present this as a sensation, but personally, I don’t see any special political connotations in this event. BRICS is a very serious organization that is still in the initial stage of its formation. Its potential remains poorly understood. So far, BRICS merely outlines the contours of a future multipolar world order, in which the various poles are civilization-states: Russia, China, India, the Islamic world, and countries of Africa and Latin America. Altogether, this still amounts only to a preliminary sketch of multipolarity.

However, there are, of course, contradictions between the poles themselves. Great uncertainty reigns in the Islamic world—especially in light of the current tragic and terrifying events in the Middle East: the so-called 12-day war between Israel and Iran. Simultaneously, tensions have escalated between Iran and India, as well as between India and Pakistan. All of this undoubtedly presents major challenges to the idea of multipolarity.

In my view, we are currently in a moment where no clear strategic trajectory for the development of BRICS can be expected. It is important that such summits are taking place at all, and that this multipolar bloc continues to gather. Yet I believe the presence of heads of state is not always necessary. Most likely, there are no ripe or fully developed decisions that would require the presence of national leaders. Where they are present, it is good; where they are represented by plenipotentiary delegates, that too is acceptable.

Frankly, BRICS has nothing to say to the world at this point. The bloc lacks the internal cohesion needed to propose truly fateful decisions or to issue joint declarations—whether on the Middle East or on other matters. Therefore, I believe this simply isn’t the right moment for BRICS to convene at the highest level, especially not for a great power like China, to make epochal pronouncements. It will be an important event, but perhaps one that does not require the presence of China’s top leader.

For this reason, I don’t see any particular intrigue in what has occurred. The general situation is that BRICS must be supported, developed, and strengthened. Yet under current conditions, when the volatility of the global system is so evident, it is unlikely that BRICS can make any decisions that would have real significance for the world at large. It is hard to imagine unified positions from China and India, for example. Furthermore, this particular BRICS gathering does not have any fundamental agenda. When such perspectives and horizons open up, I believe China will attend BRICS meetings at the highest level.

Right now, I think, each of the civilization-states should take a closer look at defining its own positions and interests. The 12-day war caused very serious upheavals, and this must be reflected upon. For the time being, there is no final clarity on this matter within any of the participants of the multipolar world—each civilization-state remains uncertain. I believe even we ourselves lack that clarity. This includes Trump’s latest proposals, which also represent a major challenge that must be thought through—after which opinions can be exchanged, including at the BRICS level.