Now We Can Sum Up the First Results

Now we can sum up the first results. Real war didn’t begin. A Junta’s military attack didn’t occur. Neither the U.S., nor NATO have decided to make in this situation a direct military intervention in Crimea. We passed the first point of “entry into the war” safely. From this point we can draw some preliminary conclusions.

1. Crimea is now part of Russia. The Kiev protests were rather weak and hesitating. The junta has not even tried to start a war, and therefore their will to fight against Russian occupation was a bluff. At the same time frightened by the determination of Putin, Kiev did not even try to take military action, which could save (at least for the short term) the chaos in Kiev and delay the inevitable collapse of the junta. This battle (not yet a whole war) Russia won brilliantly. The fact that everything went smoothly until the referendum means that the Kiev junta will soon implode. The only verifiable result of Euromaidan was the loss of a huge and important part of territory.

2. The meaning of the Crimean example will be soon fully realized by the South and East of Ukraine. Russian troops are now legally located in the Crimea and along the border with the former Ukraine. Therefore, Kiev will be not able to use the regular army to suppress popular uprisings in the East and South of ex-Ukraine, which will soon begin to fall apart. The junta’s last hope is the National Guard formed by Right Sector. But in front of the direct terror and violent repression of young neo-nazis with guns, a Eastern Front of Resistance consisting of Russian and Ukrainian brave men will be created (is creating now). The Kiev junta and its leaders will certainly avenge the loss of Crimea “Moscovites” in the East. But without support of the regular army, they will finally be fought back. If this National Guard passes a certain limit in the use of violence, the intrusion of Russian troops will follow. This situation of civil war between East and West of ex-Ukraine will continue for some time. And here Russia will encounter some risks (here is the second possible point of “entry into the war”). But the history of the secession of Crimea has shown the real power of Putin and the weakness of the USA and CIA, and Putin will only have more and more strengthened conviction that he was right and did everything well. So before the second tour of Ukrainian drama there will pass some difficult periods. Russia will enter the game once more in proper time. In the meantime, the East and South should expect a civil war with a variable outcome. Victims could be avoided by introducing Russian troops immediately, but Putin will need a legitimate reason for that. He is used to acting at the last moment. It may be correct.

3 . The entire territory of Ukraine is unlikely to be friendly for Russia. We have passed the point of no return. Therefore, the major task is now to lock up the junta on the Right Bank of Dnieper (the border will be by the stream of the Dnieper, but in the South the zone controlled by Russia will extend throughout the whole border of the Black Sea – it is necessary to interrupt the Black Sea- Baltic “cordon sanitaire”). At the same time on the Right Bank and in Kiev there will be a pitiful nightmare. Russia will never attack these territories, limiting itself to some provocation inside the lands controlled by the junta on the Western side (for example supporting independence of the Russian ethnic group and other minorities hostile to neo-nazi Kiev. Russia will build a new State, Great Russia. Kiev-Galician government with the Maidan crowd and neo-nazi Right Sector will walk slowly in the far direction of Europe. Their destiny can change if they beg pardon from the Russians realizing that the Atlanticists have tricked them and only provoked the death of the Ukrainian State.

4 . Yanukovych will go into peaceful retirement or maybe will become head of some Federal District.

5. Crimean Tatars will receive cultural autonomy and will peacefully develop their culture and language .

(Edited by James Porrazzo for www.openrevolt.info)