16.02.2022

Amid the stormy propaganda that the West has unleashed on the Ukrainian issue – ranging from a call for the repatriation of US and European citizens in Ukraine to the media leak that the Kiev government has begun to move the government infrastructure and the most important institutions to the western border of the country – it is difficult to think or talk about anything else. And not to mention the invasion, something that the Russian government has never had in its plans. But one may wonder: why would Russia invade Ukraine now? Why didn't he do it in 2014 when the situation was much more favorable to him? It is for this reason that we rule out such a hypothesis in advance, since the Kremlin does not want to solve this problem by force, even if the final result were totally unfavorable for Russia. Therefore, we must conclude that the West wants Russia to invade Ukraine and is doing everything in its power to make it happen. What would the United States gain from it? Well, the definitive divorce between Russia and Europe, in addition to the consolidation of NATO (which is crumbling in front of us) and the perfect pretext to impose all kinds of sanctions. The latter are expected to provoke a revolt of the Russian elites against Putin, since the assets of the Russian elite abroad would disappear (or, at least, that is what they believe). Americans consider all of this an excellent plan.

In case the Russians do not want to invade Ukraine, they can be forced to do so anyway and quite simply: in case the Ukrainian Armed Forces launch a punitive operation on Donbass, Russia will have to respond. Both war-ready and non-combat-ready forces are now deployed on the Ukrainian borders. In case Russia does not respond to such an attack on Donbass, then the Ukrainian forces will take this as a sign of weakness and attack Crimea: everything will start again and previously unfulfilled goals will come back to the fore. It is even possible that the Ukrainians will not even wait to take Crimea to launch other kinds of offensives.

This leads us to assume that Washington or, rather, the globalist elite currently in power in the United States (Biden and company) together with the British hawks (who are morally no different from their American counterparts and who are eager to playing geopolitics again now that Brexit is behind them) have planned all this. If the latter is true, the stories about the invasion of Ukraine begin to make sense.

Still, NATO is unlikely to get involved in this conflict, which may disappoint those who have prepared for a nuclear apocalypse. The West is not planning to unleash World War III, but it does want to drag Russia into an intense regional conflict. This means that we are left with only two options: to fight or not to fight. The West has at its disposal all the necessary means so that we do not fight and we know very well what has happened before. After the 2014 coup d'état, the reunification with Crimea and the liberation of Donbass, Washington expected to trigger a series of irreversible events at any moment. The fact that the conflict has remained dormant until now was due to the hiatus generated by the Trump administration, which was not interested in external geopolitical issues and hopes to resolve several domestic issues first. Trump's North American nationalism – of a paleoconservative nature – was compatible with multipolarity. The fact that Trump clashed with the globalists (the Swamp, which never completely disappeared) caused the US president to break with the foreign policy of US strategists and led many to label Trump a Russophile. Of course, Trump had no sympathy for Russia, but he did detest the globalists. But such an accusation was already enough to remove him from power. Atlanticist geopolitics returned to the White House at the hands of Joe Biden along with the liberal “hawks” and the neoconservatives. It was a matter of time before they all decided to reactivate the Ukrainian trap, which had been active all this time. Now is the right time to blow it up.

So far it seems that Washington wants to trigger a Russian invasion. Perhaps Russia does not want this to happen, but we cannot ignore the fact that a punitive operation on Donbass will begin. None of this depends on Moscow, while Kiev is only playing for time. Neither of them really wants bloodshed of this magnitude and NATO will certainly not try to save anyone, even if its sole objective is to spill more Slavic blood. However, Washington will continue to try to carry out its agenda, so the United States will continue to ignore Russia's warnings about NATO expansion and we will see many more smears like those made by Elizabeth Truss regarding Rostov and Voronezh. Such an attitude not only reveals the incompetence of the globalists towards the Russian world (including Ukraine) but also their complete indifference to these issues, since they feel no interest in learning the names of cities and towns in an unknown language. They all talk about the invasion and act as if it has already happened. Either way, that's what hybrid warfare is all about: acting as if everything has already happened.

Moscow will continue to reject war, and such an attitude is undoubtedly the most honorable. However, there are events that are out of our control and therefore we should imagine the following scenario: a point of no return is reached and an invasion of Ukraine takes place. Western newspapers have already loudly announced how such a military deployment will happen: sometimes they describe it very realistically and at others quite delusional. However, all scenarios agree that the eastern part of Ukraine together with Kiev will be invaded by the Russians and that only the western part will continue to resist indefinitely. Without a doubt, this will imply the establishment of NATO military bases in the western remnants of Ukraine, whose capital would be Lviv. It would be from there that terrorist actions would be deployed against the area controlled by the Russians.

The interesting thing is that this scenario is very similar to the wars that pitted the princes of Vladimir and Galicia-Volhynia for the throne of Kiev. By then Kiev had completely lost its importance and had become a third-rate provincial city. From this moment these two parts of the Russian world took very different paths: the principality of Vladimir, and later that of Moscow, became a powerful empire, while the Western Russians became an ethnic subcategory despised by the rest of Catholic Eastern Europe. It was the price paid by the arrogant Prince Daniil of Galicia for having received the crown from the hands of the Pope… The West always promises to help Eastern Christians with the sole purpose of abandoning them when the moment of truth arrives. The same thing happened during the fall of Constantinople or when Saakashvili launched his invasion against South Ossetia.

But this is where the interesting part lies: many believe that supporters of the Russian world and Eurasian geopolitics are calling for a disproportionate expansion of our borders. However, in politics everything starts from an idea, in this case the reconstruction of the borders of Russia-Eurasia and the Russian world. In any case, it is better to keep certain reservations about the future of Western Ukraine: it is impossible to integrate this region ethno-sociologically, historically and psychologically into Eurasia – with the exception of Transcarpathian Ruthenia and a whole constellation of Orthodox peoples of Volhynia. When Stalin reintegrated the Western Ukrainian territories into the Empire, all that was achieved was to increase his Russophobia and reject any unity. This fact seems to be leading to the collapse of the current Ukrainian state. Of course, the West wants to turn these territories into its backyard, an option that we must weigh carefully (but not before freeing the Ruthenians and all the peoples who want to be on our side). If we do not take all this into account, even in the hypothetical case of liberating the whole of Ukraine (something that the Atlanticists force us to do), we must always remember that the Western part will never want to be part of our political projects and will try to undermine any neutral government from within. and balanced that we establish in Ukraine or in the political entity that replaces it. On the other hand, the Ukrainian political institutions, as they exist now, are so filthy that leaving them as they are now is somewhat unwise. In addition, we cannot unleash a regime of terror against a sister nation, which leads us to have to fight against the horror of Galicia-Volhynia indefinitely. Not even Stalin was able to integrate these territories and he displayed quite harsh means.

One might ask: wouldn't it be better to leave things as they are? What is the use of creating a new Ukrainian state if we cannot bring about a revival of the Slavic peoples? Zájidna Ukrayína can continue to be called “Ukraine” (although, of course, we will reject such a name) or become “Flag-stan”, it does not matter. However, our goal is to build a new territory from the salvageable part of that country.

Another clarification: both Crimea and Donbass are no longer part of Ukraine, but it is short-sighted and undignified to fragment these regions instead of allowing them to play a relevant historical role. We must save all who want to be saved by giving them the means to support themselves. Western Ukrainians do not care about this and are opposed to any reunification.

Exceeding the limits of the "Great Space" that has been assigned to us can lead to collapse. We should only seize what we can realistically assimilate and defend. Stalin understood this very well with regard to Europe, seeking on several occasions the "finlandization" or "neutralization" of it. We were not able to assimilate Eastern Europe and to continue to hold it by force would have been suicide. All these points are nothing more than geopolitical speculation and the truth is that I have no classified information or important contacts. This is just an analysis and in it we hypothesize that if an invasion occurs – and only within this framework! – we can say that the question of the western territories of Ukraine will have to be treated delicately and with great reserve. Building an empire – or reviving a lost empire – is a complicated art, as it is not a linear or monotonous process.